Local Climate Profile

Understanding our current climate conditions, trends, and vulnerabilities

Climate Trends

Temperature

Climate analysis based on long-term data from the Štip meteorological station reveals a clear warming trend. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with an annual average temperature of 15.3°C, exceeding the 1961–1990 baseline by 2.7°C. Summer temperatures have shown the most significant increase, with 2024 also recording the highest summer average of 27.1°C.

Temperature indices reveal a sharp increase in heat-related events. Tropical nights and heatwaves have become more frequent and intense, with 2012 experiencing 10 heatwaves totaling 79 days (almost 3 months). The vegetation period has extended significantly, reaching 346 days in 2009.

Rainfall

Precipitation patterns are changing. Although annual rainfall totals have declined, especially in recent years (notably 2000, 2019, 2022 and 2023), extreme rainfall events (>40mm) have intensified. There is a rising number of days with over 40 mm of rain, particularly in late winter and summer.

Seasonal shifts include reduced autumn and winter rainfall, increased summer precipitation and a peak in spring rainfall during 2011–2020. Snowfall has also diminished, contributing to drought conditions, reduced water availability and heightened wildfire risk.

Heatwaves

Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense. The year 2012 experienced 10 heatwaves totaling 79 days (almost 3 months). The most significant changes are linked to heatwaves and tropical nights, underscoring the growing impact of warming on local climate dynamics and vulnerability.

Extreme Events

Wildfires: In 2024, over 200 fires were recorded in Sveti Nikole, burning more than 160 hectares. Between 2012 and 2022, forest fires caused an estimated 34 million MKD in damages.

Floods: Floods have caused substantial damage, particularly in 2010, 2013 and 2015, with total losses estimated at nearly 40 million MKD. The 2013 floods affected 159 homes, agricultural land, roads, bridges, water supply systems and the municipality's main water well.

Wind: The area experiences frequent strong winds (up to 27 m/s) which pose risks to infrastructure, agriculture and public health.

Key Risks

Sveti Nikole is increasingly vulnerable to climate risks such as:

  • •Heatwaves and extreme temperatures - affecting public health, especially elderly, children and outdoor workers
  • •Droughts - impacting agriculture and water availability
  • •Floods - causing damage to infrastructure, homes and agricultural land
  • •Wildfires - destroying forests, fields and property
  • •Strong winds - causing erosion and infrastructure damage
  • •Irregular precipitation - affecting water systems and agriculture

Vulnerable Groups & Sectors

Vulnerable Populations

  • •Elderly residents - particularly vulnerable to heatwaves and extreme temperatures (30% of residents are over 60 years old)
  • •Children - increased health risks during extreme weather
  • •Women in rural areas - face barriers to accessing resources and participating in decision-making
  • •Low-income households - limited capacity to adapt and recover from climate shocks
  • •Outdoor workers - increased exposure to heat stress and extreme weather

Vulnerable Sectors

  • •Agriculture - contributes nearly 39% of municipal GDP and is highly vulnerable to heat, drought, hail and shifting growing seasons
  • •Infrastructure - water supply systems, roads, bridges vulnerable to floods, erosion and wildfires
  • •Public health - rising cases of heat-related illnesses, especially during heatwaves
  • •Natural ecosystems - loss of biodiversity and carbon storage due to fire and land degradation